Sunday Night Football odds: Chiefs vs. Patriots picks, predictions from model on 58-40 roll
One of the most anticipated matchups of the season takes place on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET when the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs visit the surging New England Patriots. The Chiefs are coming off a blowout win over the Jaguars, who faced the Patriots in last year’s AFC title game. Meanwhile, the Patriots are looking for a signature win to solidify their turnaround from a sluggish start in which they lost two of their first three games.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Patriots odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 59.5. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks, check out results from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and uses advanced analytics to produce winning results for SportsLine members. In a straight-up, pick’em format, their proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span.
Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went a blistering 10-5 straight up in a wild Week 5, including calling the Jets’ victory over the Broncos. It also recommended the Bills (+6) against the spread and on the money line (+230) against the Titans. The model is now on an impressive 58-40 run on all of its top-rated picks.
For Patriots vs. Chiefs, we can tell you that the model is leaning toward the Under, but its much stronger play is on the side. Its bold point-spread pick hits well over 50 percent of the time, and it’s only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Chiefs are eager to build on their offensive juggernaut, led by second-year phenom Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Their 35 points per game rank No. 2 in the NFL and their 411.2 yards per contest rank sixth.
Kansas City (5-0) already has withstood two major challenges to maintain a spotless ledger. Two weeks ago, it overcame an inspired effort from the Broncos for three-plus quarters, but Mahomes engineered two fourth-quarter touchdown drives to help the Chiefs escape with a 31-27 victory.
Last week, they were just a field-goal favorite against a Jaguars club that was expected to make things difficult for Kansas City’s playmakers with its physical defense. Instead, the Chiefs jumped out to a 20-point lead and never looked back in the 30-14 win.
Still, there’s no guarantee Kansas City can stay within the spread against a Patriots team that is noted for deflating the momentum of countless upstart opponents.
One such example came just two weeks ago when New England (3-2), reeling from two straight defeats, thumped the previously-unbeaten Dolphins 38-7 in Foxborough. They followed it up with a 38-24 rout of the Colts.
New England’s once-struggling offense appears to have found its groove behind an efficient Tom Brady and a capable running game. Brady threw for 341 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Colts. Rookie Sony Michelprovided punch on the ground with 98 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.